Climatic Effects on Food Grain Productivity in India
A Crop Wise Analysis
Abstract
Climate change is likely to affect agricultural production adversely and becomes a more serious concern for developing countries because they do not have enough resources to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change. Statistics show that the amount of undernourished people is still alarmingly in the developing world, so as in the case of India. In India, more than 700 million populations directly depend on agriculture and allied activities of which 52% are directly dependent on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, forestry and fishery for their livelihood. The agricultural sector is most sensitive to climate change and it affects the food security of India. This study estimates the impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on food grain production to facilitate the development of appropriate farm policies to cope with climate change. Cobb-Douglas production for a panel of 13 states was employed during 1980-2009. Empirical results show that climatic factors have a statistically significant impact on the productivity of most of food grain crops but this effect varies across crops. The productivity of rice, maize, sorghum, and ragi crops is negatively influenced by an increase in actual average maximum temperature. The actual average minimum temperature has negative and statistically significant effects on wheat, barley, gram, and rice crops. The productivity of barley, rice, maize, and ragi crops leads to a decline due to excessive rain and changes in rainfall patterns. Estimates suggest that the agricultural productivity in India is sensitive to climate change which is adversely affecting food grain production and it may become a serious threat to food security in India. The major finding of the present study indicates a need to adopt separate policies for various crops to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change in India. The results also highlight the importance of irrigation and the optimum use of fertilizer to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change. The study also suggests that policymakers should ensure adequate and consistent pricing for the farmer’s product during the harvesting season.
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